Football Outsiders: Falcons more apt to pick No. 1 than make playoffs

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“Should we take Kizer or Watson at No. 1?” (Curtis Compton/AJC)

We concede that’s it early. Were it any earlier, they’d still be playing exhibitions. But they aren’t, and therein hangs a tale. The Atlanta Falcons weren’t expected to win many games, and they’ve already lost one most picked them to win. And here, since you asked, is the upshot.

Having sifted data and suchlike, our friends at Football Outsiders give the Falcons a better chance of picking No. 1 in the 2017 draft (7.1 percent) than making the 2016 playoffs (2.4 percent). For the Falcons, Football Outsiders has lowered its “mean wins” calculation from the 7.3 of preseason to 6.2. Only Miami (5.8 mean wins) and Cleveland (4.9) rank lower.

We all overreact to pretty much everything, be it stirring wins or excruciating losses. If the Falcons win the next five games, we’ll forget what happened Sunday against Tampa Bay. But that’s the thing: The Falcons aren’t apt to win many of the next five. Even if they go 2-3, they’ll be hard-pressed to break .500 on the season. Beyond this opening stretch, they still have to face Green Bay, Arizona and Carolina in Charlotte. (And they’re already 0-1 in the NFC South; they were 1-5 last season.)

That’s how massive Sunday’s result was, or at least seems. If the loss had been out of character, we might be tempted to call it an any-given-Sunday one-off. But it wasn’t. It was entirely in keeping with last season. They’d better do better soon.

Super informative reading:

Falcons fun! The wacky ways of a Kyle Shanahan offense.

The Falcons open the season by laying an egg.

The more I see, the more I doubt the Falcons.

The Falcons’ past (Koetter and Smitty) could enhance the Bucs’ future.

You call it: Quinn/Shanahan/Ryan or Koetter/Smitty/Jameis?

Matt Ryan: Overrated? Underrated? Both?

So how’s that Falcons Filter working? Not so well?

It’s only Year 2, but Dan Quinn is on the clock.

Reader Comments 0

28 comments
TideDawg
TideDawg

Quinn supports Shannahan! Does that make Quinn a genius for being loyal to a hand picked OC. The HC is supposed to correct mistakes, but obviously not his own. The Falcons have a $100m QB and a (what ever they're paying the OC) Which, of the two, appear to be the more talented offensive mind by virtue of how they're paid? Is the QB supposed to change his game or is the OC supposed to devise a plan to better utilize the QB's talent. I have no idea since I'm an unqualified observer, but logical decisions seem to prevail over brilliant game plans.

sbatl
sbatl

The entire staff needs to be fired. New coach, new gm, new personnel department, new college scouting, new QB. And Blank needs to stop insulting us with these PSL ads. Who do you think we are Blank? Have fun piping in crowd noise to the half empty Mercedes Dome.

DawgNole
DawgNole

MB: "If the loss had been out of character, we might be tempted to call it an any-given-Sunday one-off. But it wasn’t. It was entirely in keeping with last season."

___________________

Actually, it was entirely in keeping with most of the past half-century.

halscottweinstein
halscottweinstein

So what's new? With Shanahan who is the typical ego driven guy that has the "my way or the highway" attitude, the Falcons will never be a success. He has never been successful his entire career. If DQ continues his support of Kyle, they should both go along with the architect of the current personel, Dimitroff. Tough to support this triumvirate. So here's my chant, lop Dimitroff, can Shanahan and can't win with Quinn.

ctfalconsfan
ctfalconsfan

Being in CT I obviously hear all about the PATS. I didn't realize they were missing more than Brady and Gronk, 3 starting OL were out as well so half the offense out, on the road, against a VERY GOOD Cardinals team AND WON!!!

How can we have our entire offense, crafted by TD, playing at home against a below avg bucs team and LOSE?


Last year we were terrible in sacks and in the red zone. So we had all offseason to improve. 0 sacks on Sunday and 1 TD for 4 trips into the red zone. This is just 2015 all over again..


Beasley, we drafted him and are paying him as a pass rusher. Have we already given up on him playing DE after 1 season? I don't know if he says how bad he was as a DE or how weak we are at OLB, probably both...


Both TD and Shannahan need to go. If Quinn wants to keep Shan then he's part of the problem and can follow kyle right out the door.



DawgNole
DawgNole

@ctfalconsfan

You're comparing ATL to NE???

Obviously, there IS no comparison!

One has a winning/championship culture; the other is 0-50!

JSSN
JSSN

@ctfalconsfan 

The Falcons know that folks around here don't believe in next man up. Injuries and suspensions are actual excuses for them! Good obsrvations

slydawg
slydawg

@ctfalconsfan It's the front office. Everything has been changed, including the stadium, except Dimitroff. And now, another rookie head coach who is a blow hard and dances around calling a spade a spade.

TideDawg
TideDawg

@ctfalconsfan Good post ctfalconsfan!...... All of these comments and questions have been presented in many different ways regarding the Falcons ability to build a winner. The Pats continually come up with replacements that can play....the Falcons don't.....Pats coaches devise game plans to suit their talent....the Falcons don't. General opinion is that you have to run the ball to make the passing game go, but if you can't run the ball effectively why not pass to make the run game go? Maybe that's not true, regardless, the Falcons management seems confused about what to do. If they say there's no discord between the offense and Shannahan's game plan.....they're lying. Shannahan is trying to force feed his offense to players ill equipped to execute it.

slydawg
slydawg

The Falcons still have not figured out they need as many defensive draft picks in their front 7 as possible. And I'll repeat : This team and franchise will not be successful until Dimitroff is relieved of his duties.

Matt Ryan plays well enough to win and they are not taking advantage of his prime years. Matt does not possess the ability to overcome mediocre play at other positions and he does not possess the ego and/or balls to demand better. That's not a negative, it's an observation.

Dimitroff seems to think schemes, boy scout attitudes, and coaching is all there is needed. This teams cuts attitude players and keeps mediocre malcontents.

Dan Quinn being a rookie HC is still showing. The hire of Kyle Shanahan and his Shanahan dialect of the West Coast does not fit this team. Period. And all of us dumb fans, who have been watching football and the Shanahans for 20 years already knew this. Only Deshaun Watson can run this offense..... Lol

Anyone with a bit of sense knew that moving Beasley to Strongside OLB does not fit his skill set nor is he nasty enough for something like that.

TG88
TG88

TD needs to get us some real pass rushers before the trade deadline. Give up a few of those draft picks we need to win NOW.

Remember 8 of the 10 teams with the most sacks made the playoffs last season. SB winners Denver WAS #1 with 52 SACKS we were #32 or LAST with only 19 SACKS.

Falcons2013
Falcons2013

It should be obvious now that Koetter and Smith were not the problem. They just came into the Dome and beat the Falcons coaching the Bucs of all teams. There is no greater evidence that the problem has been and continues to be Dimitroff and Shanahan. Good luck selling PSLs to the 1.5 billion dollar dome when everyone sees that which Arthur Blank is blind to. Dimitroff should have been fired Sunday at 4.

uup115
uup115

Blank being a no show on the filed sunday tells you something. Either he is real sick and we are stuck with Swamp Donkey Quinn for awhile or he is up to no good.

DawgNole
DawgNole

@uup115

Shhhhhhhh!

Don't remind him.

Nothing more stomach-churning than watching that nimrod stroll the sidelines.

DrTruth
DrTruth

The most amazing thing about the Falcons is their head coach is not Jeff Fisher.  But I'm sure he's near the top of their shopping list...

slydawg
slydawg

@DrTruth If the Falcons coach was Fisher, then Dimitroff would have been fired by now and Fisher would have kept his job by appearing to be tough.

We_Will_Get_Fooled_Again
We_Will_Get_Fooled_Again

Honestly, it kind of felt like the season was over as soon as the schedule came out. I didn't think we were going to be that great to begin with, and then when I saw the gauntlet we had to face, I knew making the playoffs was going to be a major challenge.

That's why Sunday's loss was so devastating. A home game against the Bucs was one of the few games on our schedule that you would have put in the "likely win" category. It only gets harder from here. Unless this team discovers something soon, this season could spiral out of control real fast.

TOJacket
TOJacket

First choice....all new staff......Everybody

OH:IO
OH:IO

FIRE SCHANNY