Football Outsiders Almanac: Georgia Tech to go 6-6, UGA 10-2

If you scroll deep enough into the Football Outsiders’ Almanac 2016it’s available for $15 as a download, and I recommend it without reservation — you’ll find a college preview, which is the work of Brian Fremeau. As is the case with everything FO produces and Mr. Fremeau writes, it’s fascinating stuff.

The first thing that jumps out is that Fremeau has Georgia ranked No. 8 nationally. (Spoiler alert: That’s higher than I have the Bulldogs in my Top 25, which should be available soon.) He has them ahead of Tennessee, his No. 10 team. Fremeau’s numbers give the Bulldogs a 73 percent chance or better in 10 of their 12 games. The exceptions: 61 percent against Tennessee and 30 percent at Ole Miss.

"Sky's the limit, folks." (Rob Saye/Special to the AJC)

“Sky’s the limit, folks.” (Rob Saye/Special to the AJC)

I’m on record as picking Georgia to go 10-2 –that’s what FOA picks, too — and I say again: I had a harder time finding two losses than 10 wins. I see only four lose-able games: North Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Florida. There’s a chance the Bulldogs will be an underdog only in Oxford. (They’re favored over Carolina in the Dome.)

As for Georgia Tech, which FOA ranks No. 41: Fremeau’s figures give the Jackets at least a 54 percent chance in seven games. He has no Coastal team among his Top 25. He has four — North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech and Miami — rated above the Jackets, which the Almanac picks to finish 6-6. (I went with 7-5 but thought hard about 6-6.)

FOA assigns Georgia Tech no chance of going 12-0 or 11-1 and a one percent chance of finishing 10-2; the most likely outcome (28 percent) is 6-6. Fremeau’s numbers make Georgia’s most likely outcome (32 percent) as 10-2 and — pause for effect — assign the Bulldogs a six percent chance of finishing 12-0.

Among Power Five teams, only five — Clemson, Michigan, Oklahoma, Alabama and LSU — are given better odds of running Ye Olde Table. Whoa, Nellie.

Reader Comments 0

150 comments
MikeS777
MikeS777

To me Tech will finish 6-6 at best.   There's the usual Clemson, Miami, Va Tech, and UGA games that will likely be losses.   But now Duke and North Carolina are both on 2 game win streaks against Tech.  So they aren't a gimme any more.   They open with BC, so there can't be a slow start.  Ga Southern right in the middle of the schedule is a trap game that will be tough.  Virginia now is coached by Bronco Mendenhall who destroyed Johnson a few years ago in a home and home while at BYU.  He knows well how to defend the option.

This could be another bad year for Tech.   The ACC is getting better, and the option is fooling less and less teams.   It used to be Johnson could lose to Miami, Va Tech, Clemson but the rest of the ACC was clueless about the option.   Those days are over.

MikeS777
MikeS777

I don't know how UGA is going to go 10-2 this year lol.   I think Ole Miss, Tennessee and Florida will be losses.   I can see one or two more from the group of UNC, Missouri, Auburn, and South Carolina.   This is a whole new staff, Chubb and Michel aren't healthy, and Eason has yet to throw a CFB pass live.   Honestly, this could be a very rough year for UGA.   It wouldn't shock me to see them drop to 7-5.

HokeSmyth
HokeSmyth

The launch of Kansas State's women's program leaves the ACC's Georgia Tech as the only school in Power 5 conferences that doesn't have a varsity women's program.


Just 29 of the 65 Power 5 schools have men's programs.

TOJacket
TOJacket

LOL....just read on dawgnation where Casey Clausen predicted Jacob Eason to be as irrelevant as he was?....damn?........played for the Amsterdam Admirals?

TOJacket
TOJacket

Oh that's right...I forgot, Coach Jack is in Rio with some of his dawg swimmers....and they are probably in class in Athens at the same time!...wink-wink.

TOJacket
TOJacket

Good grief.....I see where Kirby is ending the annual UGA football pool party and tickle pile? You guys could probably pick up a few cheating tips from ole "Slick Jack"?

twelveofthirteen
twelveofthirteen

Turkey Neck is having the boys over for a good ole fish fry again.

Just punch them in the face gold depends grandpa.

twelveofthirteen
twelveofthirteen

Tech is asking fans for a "gold out" for the Vandy game. Wow, old man TOjackie will have to paint his depends diapers gold that day.

How sad is a program holding a "gold out" against Vanderbilt? Maybe Tech can tear down the goal posts after the game if they keep it under 7 points.

TOJacket
TOJacket

@twelveofthirteen Tear the goalposts down?......surely there isn't a chance of Tech beating a mighty SEC, SEC Least team is there?....how could a lowly Coastal team beat a juggernaut of a program like you crotch sniffers?......I mean you came in 3rd in the East last year......LOL!!!

twelveofthirteen
twelveofthirteen

I didnt say win. I said keep it within 7 points. You really are dumb arent you?

SvenOttke
SvenOttke

Yeah it's to benefit a Children's Cancer organization, you tool.  Feel good about knocking it now?

Natrone
Natrone

Final 4 playoffs this year: alabama, ohio state / michigan winner, fsu/clemson winner, oregon --- bet the house!

twelveofthirteen
twelveofthirteen

Old man river and carrot top are back. Obsessed with UGA. Hahahahahaha

GFJacket
GFJacket

Who's ready for the Kemp-Willingham Classic?

twelveofthirteen
twelveofthirteen

OH:little ten = carrot top. Never been funny, never will be funny, same $h@t material. Our little own carrot top.hahahaha

TideDawg
TideDawg

Hmmmm....I think OH:IO went to charm school over the summer.

TideDawg
TideDawg

Dawg fans want a big season. Not likely to happen. The main thing I want to see is how well they progress and how good they will be at the end of the season. Then next year.....???

OH:IO
OH:IO

It's August 16 and 12/13 is already antsy. 


Settle 12/13. 

twelveofthirteen
twelveofthirteen

And we dont care. BC will roll u. Oh wait everyone rolls you. 3-9

TOJacket
TOJacket

@twelveofthirteen If everyone does how do you explain 3 games straight decided by 6 points....2 OT and one win....god you're stupid.

TOJacket
TOJacket

@OH:IO Ain't that the truth.......just wait till the Heels pee in their cereal?

flavoice
flavoice

How in the world does anyone or any publication confidently predict 10-2 given the completely new coaching staff.  Most predictions are based on last year which means zilch, and in UGA's case mean even less given the coaching staff has been replaced.


New systems, new culture, new everything.  This prediction is worthless.


Only an idiot wouldn't expect growing pains from a 1st time ever HC.

patriotdog
patriotdog

Recall Donna 's firat year. Talent was there, confusion over the new systems reigned until the Florida game. Look for some of that this year. I say 8-4, 9-3. Year two could be really big.

ShovelPlease
ShovelPlease

UGA didn't hire Smart to go 10-2.  Could do that w/ Richt.  It's 14-1 and nat'l championship, baby!  (Or bust.)  

TideDawg
TideDawg

@ShovelPlease No! They hired him to build a program that it wasn't.... building a championship attitude is why they hired him. One year...two years, it's coming. Where he came from 10-2 was a failure. 

TOJacket
TOJacket

@ShovelPlease HAHA!!!......that's what I'm talking about!!.....36 and counting....Disco, Disco Dawgs.....LOL