How Georgia Tech might – might, I said – slip into the playoff

Playoffs? They’re talking playoffs? Actually, yeah. (Hyosub Shin/AJC photo)

Playoffs? They're talking playoffs? Actually, yeah. (Hyosub Shin/AJC photo)

Playoffs? They’re talking playoffs? Actually, yeah. (Hyosub Shin/AJC photo)

Brad Edwards of ESPN Insider gives Georgia Tech the eighth-best chance of reaching the four-team College Football Playoff. That’s not to say that the Jackets will be ranked No. 8 when the CFP committee reveals its penultimate set of ratings tonight. (They probably won’t be; they were No. 16 last week. I’d guess they’ll do well to reach No. 10.) But let’s go back to being No. 8 for a minute, even if it’s not an official No. 8.

For a No. 8 team to reach the Final Four, the quickest way would be for half of those ranked ahead to lose. Tech can beat one itself — Florida State, which is No. 3 per Edwards. (All these cited numbers are from Edwards’ top 10.) Either No. 2 Oregon or No. 7 Arizona will lose; they face one another in Friday’s Pac-12 title game. That’s two.

Ohio State plays for the Big Ten championship without quarterback J. T. Barrett, who himself replaced the injured Braxton Miller in preseason. The Buckeyes could well lose to No. 10 Wisconsin or, failing that, could look shaky enough in winning that the committee might not regard them as one of the four strongest teams. That’d be three.

No. 1 Alabama could lose to No. 9 Missouri but probably won’t, so let’s assume the Tide and the Pac-12 winner will comprise two of the Final Four. A Big 12 team — Baylor is No. 4; TCU No. 7 — is positioned to make it, but the Bears face a difficult final game against Kansas State even with quarterback Bryce Petty, who suffered a concussion Saturday against Texas Tech, insisting he’ll be available.

If Baylor loses to Kansas State, that’s the fourth team to fall. But what if it wins?

Assuming TCU disposes of Iowa State, a Baylor win would leave the Big 12 with a first-place tie. (Baylor beat TCU, for the record.) That’s according to commissioner Bob Bowlsby, who said Monday that the conference would submit both teams as champions. But nothing says the CFP committee must honor such a declaration. In a way, it would be unfair. Because the Big 12 is no longer big enough to stage a championship game, it gets two official champs as opposed to one each for the SEC, the Pac-12, the Big Ten and the ACC?

Edwards notes that the committee’s guidelines allow for “enough flexibility and discretion to select a non-champion or independent under circumstances where that particular non-champion or independent is unequivocally one of the four best teams in the country.” But let’s say the committee decides that Baylor, owing to its head-to-head victory, is the True Champ of the Big 12 and that TCU isn’t. Would the one-loss Horned Frogs make the Final Four over a two-loss Georgia Tech that just won the ACC?

Probably. The difference between one and two losses is huge. But that’s just a guess. Anything you read — here, there and everywhere — is a guess.

As much as I’ve been intrigued by the efforts to predict what this committee will do — and I credit Edwards for showing the keenest insight — can we predict that which is by definition without precedent? It wouldn’t surprise me to see a shock when the field is set Sunday. The committee could choose to wad up this week’s rankings and start from scratch on the only set that matters.

As for the Jackets: Far be it from me to quibble with Nate (The Great) Silver, whose FiveThirtyEight gives the Jackets a 1.1 percent chance of cracking the Final Four and assigns a higher probability to Mississippi State, which can’t be the champ of anything. But would a two-loss Mississippi State, which lost two of its final three games, merit a spot over a two-loss Georgia Tech that finished with victories over Clemson, Georgia and Florida State?

I don’t think so. But again, that’s just me — making a big fat guess.

Reader Comments 1

250 comments
LuxLucisofVerum
LuxLucisofVerum

I see the trolls and wannabes are out in full strength - when are the real Georgia fans going to realize that returning comments or engaging in conversations (if you would grace them with such a term) with idiots just fans the flames. Let them be and watch them run off to another board where they can get under peoples skin. Now - for the talk: 


Does any true Dawg really want Tech to win today? Tough question, but lets look at this carefully. Put aside our loss this year - it's good to lose every decade or so to remember that in college football nothing is a given. Have to stay sharp. Putting that aside - we REALLY want Tech to win Saturday! First = Tech is a Georgia team / FSU is a Florida team - that immediately is a vote for Tech to win. Two = FSU is a national disgrace and I think Tech, this year, (if they won the ACC CG) would actually get to keep the title and trophy. Both pluses. Three = it would make Tech's season one for the ages - an age that may not happen again in our lifetimes (kind of like 1980 all over again) and so we want to wish our home state rival's fans the best of luck so that they may garner a memory that will keep them warm at night during the long football winters that will inevitably come. Note: The memories keep you warm for only so long -  the coals from 1980 are getting kind of tepid these past few years. So yes - GO TECH! 


Now will they win? Well, I think FSU will do what Georgia should have done - pass, pass and more pass and inevitably torch the Techies - BUT - if FSU has a game like we did and fumbles and falters when the scoring opportunities are there for the taking - Tech can win. Heck, anybody can win when the other team is giving away points like candy. Tech will need a little of the UGA mojo to pull it off, but Christmas is all about the magic! In any case, they have my blessing and I will even throw in a little pixie dust from Nick Chubbs and Sony Michel's fingertips to help make it happen <G>


Merry Christmas!

Seminoles3xchamps
Seminoles3xchamps

GT is not beating FSU. Bradley picks the Braves to win the World Series every year it seems too and they haven't sniffed the WS since 1999.

5150POAD
5150POAD

The ACC needs to get a GRIP on the Championship game.

The ACC and the SEC Championship Games need to be played in ATLANTA. The Airport, MARTA, Hotels, College Football of Fame and a DOME is the best way and place to play these 2 Championship games. It is not a Big issue to play BOTH Championship Games in the Dome/Atlanta. The NFL moves the Falcons to an Away game and the ACC and SEC play Friday & Saturday or both on Saturday. Make the PAINTINGS on the field neutral colors and just have the SEC and ACC logos both painted at the 35's. The center LOGO says something like the HOME of CHAMPIONS.

5150POAD
5150POAD

Has ANYBODY seen 350Dawg? I guess he moved to Bulgaria. 

WhiskeyBreath
WhiskeyBreath

I realize you mutts  have always proclaimed yourself''s number one, but are you sure you are not number 2?

Ron Burgundy wants to know. 

ThomasBrownUGA
ThomasBrownUGA

@WhiskeyBreath  I wouldn't worry my little backside about it WhiskeyBreath because UGA has a LOT more talent for us to have fun following than little Georgie tek who has beat our coach twice in 14 seasons, and one of those 2 wins put Georgie tek on their current NCAA PROBATION IN FOOTBALL.

5150POAD
5150POAD

@ThomasBrownUGA NCAA is a JOKE. GURLEY did worse than ANYTHING Tech did but the NCAA STOLE TECH's Championship. UGa should have to forfeit all the game Gurley played since he started getting PAID. That would start in 2013. The UGA Program is a JOKE.

Michael-Chase
Michael-Chase

GTBee


"If it had not been for the refs we would have won by 14 or so" ??????!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Please!  I have heard so many delusional Tech fans spouting this GARBAGE!  How can so many so called smart guys say such DUMB stuff!?


Did you not see, that had Georgia not fumbled at the 1 yard line 2 out of its first 3 drives that the score would have been 21-0 and the game would have been OVER!?


Enjoy your revisionist history

WhiskeyBreath
WhiskeyBreath

@Michael-Chase they kicked your butts mutts, get it over it. Oh, sorry, they will be able to brag for 360 more days. He He He  

Jmonty
Jmonty

A lot of UGA fans are on here showing low to no class....  Is this what UGA is about?  It was a hard fought game.  Just like last year, it was a close game that either team could of won.  As for the lame stereotypes?  Really?  Resort to name calling, as if you were in middle school?  Just shameful.  Funny....the UGA grads I know are all good people.  Guessing the people posting are either non UGA attendees or plain out trolls.  That.... or I'm just lucky enough to have served with met some UGA folks that were good people.  You act like this is first time anyone has messed with the hedges.  

WhiskeyBreath
WhiskeyBreath

@Jmonty Ga is about winning plastic NC trophies. Don't believe it, ask them. They can't understand why it is a big joke with opposing fans. In their mind, they have 35 of them and deserve more.  

5150POAD
5150POAD

@twelveofthirteen TECh would have 8.

Bama 14

Tech 8

UGA 6

So the Dawgs still sniffing Butt.

the View never changes if you are not the lead Dog.

GTBee
GTBee

We beat UGA...finally. All I care about.  I always said we can go 1-11 with the '1' being a win over UGA and I'd be happy.  FSU game is a nice bonus.  Will the players be flat because of the emotional victory over Georgia or complacent?  Hard to say.  We do certainly look good.  Had it not been for the refs, we would have won by 14 or so.

Big Wally
Big Wally

@GTBee Wow, still bitching about the ref's.  If you want to play that game, let's talk about Jasper Sanks non fumble on the goal line,  let's talk about Hamilton's fumble that was never called (by ACC ref's).

HuckFinn1835
HuckFinn1835

The Gawga Bullfrogs are prima facie evidence that mediocrity ensures further mediocrity which leads to a permanent state of irrelevancy. The Gawga Bullfrog Trophy case could be chocked full of national championships in "Irrelevancy'...Nobody does it better...quite the way they do...oh baby....you're the best!

HuckFinn1835
HuckFinn1835

@ThebigWally @HuckFinn1835  I'm don't think Midol treats "mediocrity or irrelevancy" particularly well; you might want to suggest that to Greg McGarity and Mark Richt.  Any suggestions like that would probably be appreciated. ok, Dahling??

HuckFinn1835
HuckFinn1835

@ThebigWally @HuckFinn1835  The most deserving and appropriate salutation would be: "Dear Masters of Mediocrity and Irrelevancy, " .  Even with a merited salutation, it's doubtful that you will get a response; mediocrity feels no need to defend its irrelevancy.

HuckFinn1835
HuckFinn1835

How many uga five star athletes does it take to lose to ensure a loss to a team that has none???? Given the Gawga Bullfrogs record at doing so...perhaps it's best to prefer the two star athlete.

HuckFinn1835
HuckFinn1835

In reality we all know that the uga bullfrogs are, in fact, a real #2.......................floating in a toilet somewhere. We can all agree on that, can't we?

HuckFinn1835
HuckFinn1835

As the first champion of the new playoff system, that beautiful trophy is going to be a wonderful addition to add to our 1990 national championship trophy. We should start making more room for others soon to come. It's great to be a Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket, We're so happy to set the example in our beloved state of Georgia as the "paragon of football excellence" since no other Georgia team is capable.

HuckFinn1835
HuckFinn1835

@twelveofthirteen @HuckFinn1835  My comment simply "was not" about those sorry curs from Athens. The comment was about the only Georgia team going to play in championship geme. Sorry, but yo gawga bullfogs just ain't in dis convahsayshun. Ok little doggie??

TideDawg
TideDawg

Too many of the CFP team want regional matchups, not the best teams. They also have a lady that probably picks teams by the clothes they wear.(No disrespect to her, she's a great lady....but football ?) I think we will see a blockbuster move even if all top 4 teams win. Pessure, politics, lack of knowledge, etc.will prevail.

Big Wally
Big Wally

The only group more upset than UGA fans is the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce.  Having 2 or 300 nerds invading their city and only spending money at the comic book store isn't exactly what they had in mind when they put in a bid to host the ACC Champ. Game.

Jmonty
Jmonty

@ThebigWally I'm sure Nashville will like the increase of liquor sales from UGA fans....  The stereotype goes both ways...  That post show nothing but ignorance.  Glad I know how true UGA fans act.  You are not a fan...you're just a useless troll.  If you want to show UGA respect... Try acting like you have the slightest bit of class.  Or should I call you a drunken trailer trash redneck?  Again... I have UGA friends, so I know better.  But, stereotypes go both ways bubba.. 

dawg fan
dawg fan

Looks like I touched a nerve calling the Techies out on what a bunch of fake hypocrites they are.  They lecture everyone else on class and turn their noses up at everyone, but then they destroy property in an opposing teams' stadium and are well known to throw trash on the field at their own stadium.


Sour grapes?  Maybe.  Good thing I don't have to deal with that very often. 

JP Georgia Born
JP Georgia Born

@dawg fan yall tore our field up in 09 and you full of it, on the trash account. You ca call me a hyprocite all you want as long as I call you a short sighted ignorant fan of the game.  Lol I guess your just sad Mark Richt and Mark Bradley are having a little bit of a spat in their relationship. 

dawg fan
dawg fan

@JP Georgia Born @dawg fan  As I've already pointed out, '09 was in retaliation for you tearing up the hedges in 2008.


Might want to switch to astroturf for 2015.

5150POAD
5150POAD

@dawg fan Privet hedge be it Japanese(as UGa now uses) or English is HARD to Kill. I still use the English Privet to separate my Cow pastures. My Granddad started growing it as a Cow Barrier after he served in WWI fighting in Europe. men couldn't fight through that stuff. Europeans have used it as Property lines and animal barriers for hundreds of years for a reason. YOU CAN'T KILL IT

zengulliver
zengulliver

@dawg fan Have you seen the classic photo of Bear Bryant walking in front of the Tech student section with a suit and a football helmet on. Tech fans are like honeybadger, they don't care.

Nowayjose9
Nowayjose9

What does the playoff committee value? Winning big, beating good teams and winning your conference. GT has done all the above the past 5 games. They are the only team to play top 20 teams 3 weeks in a row. If gt wins, it will be a win over 18th clemson, 14th ga and currently 4th fsu. That will carry a lot of weight and get rewarded. They would easily pass mich st, miss st. All gt needs to get into the playoff is for ohio st to lose or barely win. Without a good qb, they are not a top 4 team. Also would help for baylor to lose to k state. 

The committe isn't going to put to big 12 teams into the playoff without a conf champ for them. So what other logical team would you put? The team riding a 6 game winning streak who has 3 wins in a row over top 20 teams? Of course. Those who say gt doesn't have a chance have not been paying attention. They do.

DawgNole
DawgNole

The pressure of maintaining a 28-game winning streak is real--as is the pressure of being defending NC and a betting favorite in every game, including Saturday's in Charlotte. 

Add to that the potential pressure of overcoming an early deficit (a distinct possibility) to a ball-control team, and it's easy to see that GT has a legitimate shot at winning this year's ACCCG. 

TideDawg
TideDawg

@DawgNole; FSU's chances of losing the ACCCG are slim at best. They got what they wanted last Sat.

They are so giddy I doubt they will make much of a game of it. Not that it matters but I was impressed with the way they played against Ga. To do that 2 weeks in a row would be just short of a miracle.

Wilbo
Wilbo

Georgia Tech has more chance of getting in the 4 team college football playoff than does Marshall or the College of Charleston or UAB, but not really much.


As much as I despise Ga. Tech and their ugly crime ridden campus, it would be a delicious, hilarious irony if they could beat the Florida State Criminoles. 


I'm guessing 31-13 FSU. Can't wait to hear the results of FSU's campus investigation of the sexual assault  allegations against Mr. Winston. I wasn't there and I don't know, but sounds like he's at least as guilty as Bill Cosby. We'll see. I think he skates...


lvg
lvg

I hear the UGA players may be taking some precollege courses next semester.(if they are not locked up).

Big Wally
Big Wally

Wow, you teckies haven't been this happy since you discovered your own 'light sabers'.  How many of you Nerds plan on actually going to the ACC Champ. Game?, 2 or 3 hundred?  The comic book stores in Charlotte must be expecting a big boom in business this weekend.    

5150POAD
5150POAD

@ThebigWally you can't even afford to attend a UGa game live much less to have afforded a degree. Calling out the nerds is one thing but you have been posting crap all season. You know the Dawgs are 9-3 and it ain't looking good for next year.

Big Wally
Big Wally

@?????????????? @ThebigWally Charlotte Walmart has a sale on pocket protectors.  See how much of that grass cutting money you have left in your Batman piggy bank.  

Princess_Leia
Princess_Leia

@ThebigWally BigWally, we know your heart is broken and you're really hurting, and you're depressed because of the loss to Tech and the fact that the rent on your trailer is overdue, but that's... well, that's all good.

5150POAD
5150POAD

@ThebigWally @?????????????? Sorry But Uga is the school with a Landscape Engineering & Design degree. My Friend from high school and walk-on football player for UGa has that degree and he runs a large landscaping co in Atlanta.

macrotech
macrotech

@ThebigWally bless your heart! What's wrong? Your tobacco stained wife-beater getting too tight?! Let me ask YOU a question...how many of you mutt fans are going to the sec championship game? Oh, yeah...THAT'S right...y'all aren't playing in it...my bad! Maybe, this weekend you can get those rabbit-ears to pick up a tractor pull or something! 

Big Wally
Big Wally

@TheRealGetReal @ThebigWally Brilliant retort.  Were you wearing your Spiderman outfit when you wrote that?   When you go to Charlotte be sure to wear that to the game.  It will impress the FSU fans.

HuckFinn1835
HuckFinn1835

@Princess_Leia @ThebigWally  The rent on trailers by rednecks is typically overdue, so we know that probably isn't a reason that Big Waddy is crying. Besides that terrible whupping those curs from Athens got in their own stadium, Big Waddy is probably disappointed that he picked the wrong sister to be his wife.

MrBreez1
MrBreez1

@ThebigWally 

You've already said that, Dork. Come up with something original.

FYI, my son and I will be there, making an up and back trip in that same day just like the last time...

Big Wally
Big Wally

@HuckFinn1835 @Princess_Leia @ThebigWally Huck hasn't been this fired up since the great Kirk vs Picard debate at Tech in 2005.  Things quickly got out of hand, there were pocket protectors and slide rules flying all over the place.   

Big Wally
Big Wally

@MrBreez1 @ThebigWally P.S.  you say I am repeating myself.  Care to look back over this blog and see how many references there are to trailers/rednecks, etc. by you tech fans?     

Dirtyb8
Dirtyb8

@ThebigWally Personally, I don't take any offense from being called a nerd especially when the person pointing those to me is uneducated and works at walmart with his UGA degree. Thanks for letting us know that we are smart and educated....something you trailer trash will never be.

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  1. […] with ESPN’s Brad Edwards — three separate conversations, as I recall — last fall in the attempt to handicap the College Football Playoff, I can attest that he takes the postseason more seriously than anyone who doesn’t work for […]